Need I say anything about the flood damaged caused by the cut-off low system that hit Kwazulu Natal recently. The images available speak for itself. This will go down in the history books as the most devastating flood in the history of South Africa, even bigger than the 1968 Port Elizabeth and East London floods and the 1981 Laingsburg Flood. My deepest condolences go out to all those who lost loved one's as a result of this terrible event. May you find peace and may all the happy memories of your loved one's bring you comfort at this sad time.
Before I express my opinion relating to emergency communications I would like to give my personal opinion as to the weather system that caused the Kwazulu Natal Flood. Firstly I am not a qualified Meteorologist but has been the administrator for SAWDIS, SAWOIS and several other platforms that presented weather observation information to the general public for several years. Judging from the comments by the public, government, schools and universities these platforms were very popular, informative and educational of nature. Be as it may we need to look at the system that caused this devastating flood.
The SA Weather Service were spot-on with their prediction, warnings and media release that were issued despite what certain people now proclaim. I am of the opinion that the cut-off low was the cause of the heavy rainfall and consequent flooding. It was not caused by a so called "Tropical Depression called ISSA" which "developed" after the heavy rain has already fallen. Personally I do not believe that we can really talk about a Tropical Depression or even name the system Tropical Storm "ISSA." More on this later.
Lets look at the timeline of the cut off low prediction and development as of the 7 April 2022 on-ward's:
- SA Weather Service Media Release issued on the 7 April 2022:
Media Release: Flooding expected in parts of South Africa this weekend (8-11 April 2022) with cold conditions as a cut-off low affects the country.
- 10 April 2022: Frank Böttcher@bottcherscience reported:
-
ASKMeteo @ASKMeteo reported:
Apr 9
Wow 😳. Very heavy rainfall possible tomorrow. #StaySafe and be prepared and follow official weather warnings and advisories. @ReenvalSA
@_ArriveAlive
@afriwx
- Predicted rainfall charts for 10 - 14 April 2022 provided by Afri WX on 10 April 2022:
Note: This prediction was done on the 10 April 2022 and is subject to change as the new prediction is issued.
- Real Time Eumetsat Image for the 10 April 2022 @ 10h00 SAST:
This 'comma shape' of the cloud bands is the main feature that signifies the 'cut-off' stage of the Cut-Off Low 10 April 2022 (Image courtesy of Eumetsat, 2022). - SAWSAWC
Now this is where it started to get very interesting. The intensification of the cut-off low can clearly be seen. The following comment says it all "Last 3 words: Accociated Aviation hazards: Had a TERRIBLE flight to JHB on Friday evening. Don't ever fly if there's a Cut Off Low. Worst flight of my life. Be warned"
- Warnings issued by the SAWS on the 9 - 10 April 2022 iro Kwazulu Natal:
- Eumetsat Image for the 11 April 2022 @ 06h15 SAST:
The Cut-off Low is still maintaining status quo for today (11 April 2022
- Orange level 5 warning: Rain: KZN: 11 April 2022 - SAWS
- Orange level 8 warning: Rain: KZN: 11 - 12 April 2022
- MEDIA RELEASE: (12 April 2022) Extreme rainfall and widespread flooding overnight: KwaZulu-Natal and parts of Eastern Cape
- SAWS Rainfall and Alerts (12-13 April 2022).
- Yellow level 2 warning: Rain: Eastern Cape: 13 April 2022
- On the 12 April 2022 at 09h30 I first noticed the Mid Latitude Cyclone as per satellite image.
As this is not a tropical cyclone or tropical depression as stated by Meteo France not much notice was taken of it as it is not an uncommon or rare event. These do pop up from time to time along the South African coast. More on this later. Here is the satellite image of the 12 April 2022.
Mid Latitude cyclone visible just offshore with outer flow bands over areas of Kwazulu Natal. The mid-latitude cyclone is a synoptic scale low pressure system that has cyclonic (clockwise in Southern hemisphere) flow. Here is the NOAA19 images around 20h00 on the 12 April 2022.
The image underneath display such a system that was observed just to the south of Cape Town on the 10 May 2010 and what a mid-latitude cyclone is:
Here are some more examples of a mid-latitude cyclone event that was observed by me during the period 4 - 9 January 2014 that occurred as a result of a cut-off low. Articles written about this event can be found HERE and HERE.
- Here is also some information on "What is a cut-off low?"
It is interesting to see that the media and certain social media weather platforms agreed with Meteo France while our own Weather Service did not issue any media statement in this regard. Here are some comments relating to the so called "Tropical Depression and Storm ISSA".
- I asked the following question and expressed my opinion iro "ISSA"
Garden Route Hub Network @ZaZs1i
Apr 13
Replying to
@VoxWeatherZa
and
@SAWeather_
Is this really a Sub Tropical Storm or Tropical Depression? If so then things do not add up. The cut-off low caused the damage in KZN not the now called "Tropical Depression" #ISSA. I do not agree with the "Tropical Storm" naming. Be as it may not for me to decide.
If this is classified as a Sub Tropical Storm or Tropical Depression, does this mean that this specific event is re-writing the weather history books or that this is now classified as a new area where we can expect Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, Cyclones in future?
Needless to say that no answer was received as rightfully predicted by many as nobody wanted to put their job on the line. The question still remain unanswered. Personally I think that a mistake was made to classify the reminiscences of the cut-off low as a tropical depression and issue the name #ISSA to it. If it was not a mistake then all future such storms will have to be classified as a tropical /depression storm and be named accordingly. Be as it may thankfully no further serious damaged was caused.
The above Eumetsat Satellite Image reflect the reminiscences of the cut-off low system. Not much left of Meteo France's Tropical Depression "ISSA".
- Now why mention Amateur Radio Emergency Communications in the Title of this post?
Good emergency management before, during and after severe storms depends on access to real-time weather warnings and observations. The SA Weather Service is the sole entity that can issue such warnings but what about weather and disaster observations?
The examples (in the links below) from Mossel Bay shows how radio amateurs and HAMNET (emergency division of the South African Radio League) members, as well as the general public, can play an important role in reporting real-time weather and disaster information – and offer a key public information service during emergencies and natural disasters. It also illustrates how members of the public, using their own equipment, can contribute positively to disseminating critical information when and where it is needed most.
The poor quality of public information available during severe weather events and disasters necessitate the need for a country wide public weather and disaster information service, and especially an early warning system of rising water levels, strong winds, heavy rain etc. With the support of radio amateurs (known as radio hams) and the general public there is a need to established a Weather and Disaster Information Service by radio amateurs to provide up to the minute weather reports, weather maps, photographs, satellite images, and relevant information iro disasters in South Africa.
This approach of harnessing amateur radio for local disaster risk management should caught on quickly as radio amateurs have the means and ability to spread information/data even if the Internet, cell phone networks or landlines are down in the effected area or province. It must be spread around the country via Amateur Radio, Internet, WhatsApp, Telegram and other Social Media that is in operation at the time, during the event or disaster.
It is important that information must be exchanged effectively by using the Internet, commercial entities and amateur radio which ever is operational at the time. Like we say in amateur radio "If all else fails amateur radio will not" With 500 MTN cell towers going offline during the KZN Flood it is important that radio amateurs get involved in providing communications during disasters. Read the article HERE.
AMATEUR (HAM) RADIO IS THE ONLY FAIL SAFE COMMUNICATION SYSTEM IN THE WORLD!
This two-way information flow via Amateur Radio helps to promote and improve scientific methodologies as well as helping to interpret weather and disaster observations at grass roots level. The ‘high-tech’ element of amateur radio can rely on Winlink, or the APRS RF global system. This is a combination of networks and terrestrial and satellite links that move weather-related information around the world. In South Africa, many areas lack the necessary infrastructure and knowledge to benefit from this global information. This is where the ‘low-tech’ side of amateur radio should step in where amateur radio operators receive and share important weather and disaster information linking isolated and marginalized communities around the country. Yes, low-tech as we do not need high-tech to send observation information to local communities, however high tech can also be used if needed.
Will the above suggestions at least be considered by radio amateurs? That's up to them to decide. I have had my innings and with old age creeping up on me, now is the time for me to hand over the reigns to the younger amateur radio generation. Who will be the first to "pick up the ball" in establishing a Weather and Disaster Information Service in South Africa?
Finally: I do not like to talk about my "achievements" in amateur radio as it is not important to me to tell the world what I have done and achieved. I am just another "spoke in the wheel". Recently I was requested to share my knowledge and experience that might be of benefit to new and younger radio amateurs. I will provide the links to some of my contributions to South Africa and the Garden Route District area.
1. RADAR Western Cape 2010 Risk and Development Annual Review
Publication (Page 68) Click HERE
2. Established the first ever AREDN Mesh Network in South Africa and put it to good use:
2.2 AREDN Group in South Africa Responds to Fire Disaster - AREDN USA
2.3 Radio amateurs give wireless support behind the scenes - Mossel Bay Advertiser
3. SA Weather and Disaster Observation Service Click HERE
4. Mossel Bay Weather Observation, South Africa Click HERE
5. Knysna Fires After Action Report Click HERE
6. The Laingsburg Flood 25 January 1981 (Article for Schools) Click HERE
7. Herold/George Fire After Action Report Click HERE
8. Commemoration and Amateur Radio Involvement: Knysna Fires 7 June 2017 Click HERE
9. Radio Ham Saves Lives (Dalkiri - 2005 Rescue story) Click HERE
- Herewith some images of the damage caused in KZN as a result of a severe weather system: (Click on images for larger view.)
Article written and compiled by Johan ZS1I, Mossel Bay
Resources,Images and Thanks:
